Saturday Picks

China Open Semi-Finals:

Jankovic(1.53) vs. Zvonareva(2.86): Back ZVONAREVA 3pts @ 2.86 -£6.00
Kuznetsova(1.5) vs. Zheng(2.86): Back ZHENG 2pts @ 2.86 -£4.00

Korea Open Semi-Finals:

Stosur(1.47) vs. Craybas(3.1): Back CRAYBAS 1pt @ 3.1 -£2.00
Kirilenko(1.98) vs. Kanepi(2.0): Back KIRILENKO 2pts @ 1.98 +£3.72

F1 Singapore Grand Prix Qualifying:
Back MASSA to win pole 2 pts @ 4.1 +£11.78

Football (under/over2.5):

Man Utd vs. Bolton: UNDER 3pts @ 2.32 +£7.52
QPR vs. Derby: UNDER 2pts @ 1.94 +£3.57
Leeds vs. Hereford: OVER 2pts @ 1.78 -£4.00
Oldham vs. Huddersfield: OVER 3pts @ 1.92 -£6.00
Walsall vs. Carlisle: OVER 2pts @ 2.02 +£3.88

Total Profit for day: +£8.47

More WTA picks

From yesterday morning: Zvonareva vs. Schiavone: Traded +£1.37

China Open Quarter Finals:

Jankovic(1.23)vs.Hantuchova(5.2):Back HANTUCHOVA 1pt@5.2 Traded +£0.86
Kuznetsova (1.42) vs. Cibulkova (3.25): Back KUZNETSOVA 2pts @ 1.42 +£1.60
Medina-Garrigues (3.9) vs. Zvonareva (1.34): No Bet
Ivanovic (1.68) vs. Zheng (2.44): Back ZHENG 2 pts @ 2.44 +£5.47

Highlights of Ivanovic vs. Zheng last time they played can be seen here.

Hansol Korea Open:

Kanepi (1.35) vs. Wickmayer (3.8):No Bet
Stosur (1.78) vs. Makarova (2.24): No Bet
Kirilenko (1.42) vs. Parmentier (3.25): Back PARMENTIER 2 pts @ 3.25 -£4.00
Craybas (2.92) vs. Peer (1.50): Back PEER 2 pts @ 1.50 -£4.00

Total Profit for day: +£1.30

Carling Cup picks

After the fiasco of my hasty picks last night, I've sat down with a more thoughtful attitude today to make my Carling Cup picks. First match, I've looked at as always is Blackburn/Everton, where I think the value lies in both taking an over the goal line bet, and a small bet in support of Everton.

The media is reporting that Everton will rest players, especially with the Merseyside derby approaching at the weekend. However the over looked fact is that Everton don't really have much in the way of 'second choice' players as the squad is very small and there are still many players missing through injuries. Carlo Nash might perhaps make his debut here - but is that really weakening the team after Howard's recent flapping at set pieces? Arteta is a doubt, but will probably play, as will Osman, Fellaini and maybe also Louis Saha. The only forseeable defensive changes would be a possible start for either Baines or Valente. Everton will field a strong side here and are unbeaten at Ewood Park since the 2004/05 season.

Everton have two big motivational factors ahead of this fixture, firstly is a desire to gain revenge after the recent home defeat in the premier league and secondly is that Moyes team views this competition as a strong chance for a trophy, especially after reaching the semi-finals last year.

Blackburn under new manager Paul Ince will not have quite the same level of motivation in the tournament - at least not perhaps this season. It will not be a priority for Paul Ince. Ince may also elect to give one or two players a rest, I would expect Derbyshire to start for sure. Reid, Dunn, Andrews and McCarthy will all be missing.

So that explains my support for the away win here, but this is also a relatively simple over the goal line pick if you take a look at the form of these defences this season. Both sides have shipped goals in uncharacteristic fashion, but have also been scoring freely at the other end. This cup match will be decided tonight so both teams will try and win this game and I think the goals will flow.

My other picks tonight involve Chelsea beating Portsmouth and Newcastle-Spurs going under the goal line. Chelsea will play a reserve team which will still have more than Portsmouth can muster and Redknapp has also decided to rest several key players such as Defoe, Campbell, Diarra and the wardrobe Bouba Diop. Easy pickings for the Chelsea squad players.

I must admit the basement of the premier league is a hilarious place at the moment. Spurs are rock bottom with no wins and Newcastle are second bottom after the club self-destructed (again). These clubs face off tonight and I wouldn't be expecting anything other than a tight ugly match here. Spurs never travel well to the North East and that might just enable Newcastle to sneak a win if they can find a goal. I'd be surprised if this game exploded in goals given the low morale at both clubs and could maybe go all the way to extra-time and penalties.

Blackburn v Everton: Back EVERTON 2pts @ 2.90 -£4.00
Blackburn v Everton: Back OVER 2.5 3 pts @ 2.18 -£6.00
Portsmouth v Chelsea: Back CHELSEA 3 pts @ 1.60 +£3.60
Newcastle v Tottenham: Back UNDER 2.5 2 pts @ 2.08 (layed @ 1.12) +£3.24

Total Profit for day: - £3.16

Don't let the spreadsheets choose your picks!

Today some valuable lessons have been learnt. I am slightly embarrassed by what I am about to confess as I really did think I knew better, but obviously I did not. Tuesday night is usually the night I get up off my lazy PC dwelling backside and go and actually play some sport. Tonight however I was running late and wanted to take a quick look at the overs and unders on the Carling Cup matches, before I had to go and catch my bus to football. As per normal I copied the matches and relevant statistics into my spreadsheet/coupon, copied in the current market prices from Betfair and gave them a cursory glance. As I was in such a hurry I essentially let the spreadsheet do the picking for me and took a few small punts on what were showing up as the greatest value margins. Before I had really considered what I was doing I was out the door with my kit bag in hand. On returning home to see the results of tonights matches I was horrified by both the lousy outcomes (not a single pick came in) but far more so by my horrible picking to which I had put in very little 'human' thought. For anyone, who hasn't already worked it out. The two golden rules that I have broken tonight are as follows...

1) Never make picks when you are in a hurry.
2) Never rely on bare statistical analysis without human thought.

If spreadsheets and statistical 'systems' could produce results on their own then wouldn't we all be millionaires by now? These systems are obviously an invaluable aid to picking but at no times can they replace a little human savvy. I feel like a right plonker now, like a guilty addicted little punter who let the excitement of having a gamble get in the way of some simple common sense principles that I have always believed in.

So simply put, whenever you find yourself in a hurry, don't feel obliged to have a punt - no matter how good you think you are. Remember there is always tomorrow!
For those interested in specifics of my folly here are the offending picks:

Carling Cup 3rd Round:
Liverpool v Crewe: Back UNDER 2pts @ 2.74 -£4.00
Arsenal v Sheff Utd: Back UNDER 2 pts @ 2.22 -£4.00
Sunderland v Northampton: Back UNDER 1 pt @ 2.16 -£2.00
Man Utd v Middlesbrough: Back UNDER 1 pt @ 2.12 -£2.00

On reflection the Liverpool pick is marginal at best, the Arsenal pick is frankly awful and neither of the other picks justify a bet at the slim prices. These all came up as mathematical value in terms of goal expectancy and goal supremacy but it doesn't take a genius to see that even Arsenal reserves were liable to smash several past Sheff Utd and Liverpool (despite the OK price) were also likely to do something to Crewe, especially after the disappointing Stoke match. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh? Would I still be saying these were bad picks if they had all won? Probably yes, I'm afraid, but the fact they all lost does probably add some bleakness to the whole affair. One other point to note is that when backing under the goal line it is always wise to be monitoring the markets as trading is much more straightforward when backing unders. I, of course, was out playing football. I had a shocker there too!

OK, hopefully normal service can be resumed tonight with the following picks on the early morning tennis in China. This is about all I could find from this round but the Szavay price is quite remarkable in my opinion, and I cannot see why Szavay is not the slight favourite here. Despite the fact that Jankovic is very likely going to smash Wozniak - 8.6 on a top 40 ranked player cannot be passed up, especially when Jankovic is quite capable of making the occasional mess of things. Next match involves a doubles team facing each other in singles which should provide an added dimension. A close look at the statistics shows that in-form Cibulkova is very backable here at 1.75 against Chakvetadze. The Russian has been struggling lately and does not often win matches when she is an underdog (20% this year). My other pick involves Tanasugarn whose experience and consistency often sees her produce some shock results as an underdog (50% this year). I had a great time backing her at Wimbledon earlier this season and if Hantuchova does not bring her A game to this match - which she so often doesn't - then Tanasugarn is the sort of player who will take advantage.

Tanasugarn(2.84) vs. Hantuchova(1.54): Back TANASUGARN 3pts@2.84 -£6.00
Szavay (2.16) vs. Medina-Garrigues (1.85): Back SZAVAY 5 pts @ 2.16 -£10.00
Chakvetadze (2.30) vs. Cibulkova (1.75): Back CIBULKOVA 3 pts @ 1.75 +£4.50
Jankovic (1.12) vs. Wozniak (8.6): Back WOZNIAK 1 pt @ 8.6 -£2.00

Total Profit for day: - £25.50